by It will take some setbacks in the final week of the college football season when there won’t be 5-7 teams in bowl games.
After Ball State returned to beat Miami (Ohio) 18-17 to secure a spot in the Bahamas Bowl, 74 teams are eligible for bowl games. And since Rice and Appalachian State both must win to qualify for a bowl game, the number of bowl-eligible teams will not be less than 75. The Mountaineers are favored by 4.5 points in that matchup and are seventh win needed to qualify as they have two wins against FCS teams so far this season.
But here’s the catch. Outside of the national title game, there are 41 bowl games this year. That means seven teams with five wins have to win the last weekend of the season in order not to let 5-7 teams go to a bowl game. And many of those five-win teams are underdogs.
Only four of the remaining teams needing a win in Week 13 will be favored. Here’s a look at the rules, courtesy of BetMGM.
Favorites
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Confederate Miss (-3) in Louisiana-Monroe
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Buffalo* (-4) vs. Kent State
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Louisiana (-5.5) in the state of Texas
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UAB (-17.5) at Louisiana Tech
*Buffalo is 5-5 after game against Akron is postponed.
Underdogs with one score
Significant underdogs
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Rice (+14) in North Texas
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Vanderbilt (+14.5) vs. Tennessee
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UTEP (+17) at UTSA
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Michigan State (+18) and Penn State
Hoping for a miracle
Which of those underdogs do you have the most confidence in? All three one-score underdogs are at home, so they could potentially win and it wouldn’t really come as a surprise. But would you count on that happening? A $50 parlay on all favorites and underdogs with one score to win would net over $2,000. The odds are slim that all seven of those teams will win outright.
Therefore, it is likely that there will be at least 5-7 teams in a bowl game this year. And this is where academics come in. Sub-.500 teams are selected for bowl games based on their academic progression rate. That means Rice (994) is first in line if it finishes 5-7, as it has the highest APR of any potential 5-7 team.
We’re going to avoid selecting multiple teams to bowl games based on their APR in our penultimate set of bowl projections and try to be optimistic. We’ll dip into the APR rates in a week if we have to. Hopefully not. But we probably will.
New Year’s Six bowl games
Orange Bowl (December 30)
Clemson vs. Alabama
Sugar bowl (December 31)
State of Kansas vs LSU
Peach Bowl (December 31) [CFP semifinal]
Georgia vs USC
Fiesta Bowl (December 31) [CFP semifinal]
State of Ohio vs. TCU
Cotton Bowl (January 2)
Tennessee vs. UCF
Rose Bowl (January 2)
Michigan vs. Oregon
Other bowl games
Bahamas Bowl (December 16)
Rice vs Miami (Ohio)
Cure Bowl (December 16)
Liberty vs South Alabama
Fenway Bowl (December 17)
Syracuse vs. Cincinnati
New Mexico Bowl (December 17)
Air Force vs. North Texas
L.A. Bowl (December 17)
Boise State vs. Washington State
LendingTree Bowl (December 17)
Toledo vs. Appalachian State
Las Vegas Bowl (December 17)
Utah vs Mississippi State
Frisco Bowl (December 17)
Middle Tennessee State vs. SMU
Myrtle Beach Bowl (December 19)
UTSA vs. Carolina Coast
Potato Bowl (December 20)
State of San Diego vs. Bowling Green
Boca Raton Bowl (December 20)
Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina
New Orleans Bowl (December 21)
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
Armed Forces Bowl (December 22)
Houston vs. Miami
Gasparilla Bowl (December 23)
Maryland vs South Georgia
Independence Bowl (December 23)
BYU vs. UConn
Hawaii Bowl (December 24)
State of San Jose vs. UAB
Quick Lane Bowl (December 26)
State of Utah vs. Buffalo
First Responder Bowl (December 27)
Memphis vs. Kansas
Birmingham Bowl (December 27)
State of Fresno vs. Louisiana
Camellia Bowl (December 27)
Ohio vs Troy
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (December 27)
Purdue vs Oklahoma State
Military Scale (December 28)
Duke vs. Tulane
Liberty Bowl (December 28)
Oklahoma vs South Carolina
Party Bowl (December 28)
Wake Forest vs. Washington
Texas Bowl (December 28)
Texas Tech vs Arkansas
Pinstripe Bowl (December 29)
NC state vs Minnesota
Cheez-It Bowl (December 29)
North Carolina v. Baylor
Alamo Bowl (December 29)
Texas vs. UCLA
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (December 30)
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Sun Bowl (December 30)
State of Oregon vs. Pitt
Gator Bowl (December 30)
State of Florida vs. Kentucky
Arizona Bowl (December 30)
Wyoming vs. Eastern Michigan
Music City Bowl (December 31)
Iowa vs. Florida
ReliaQuest Bowl (January 2)
Notre Dame vs. Illinois
Citrus Bowl (January 2)
Penn State v Ole Miss
