Maybe our defensive foresight helped you last week (Miami could knock off Houston), but the fielders disappointed. There will be such fantasy slates. Keep your head down, keep grinding.
There is no right or wrong way to handle this column. You could use it for start/sit accompaniment, or the impetus of a prop play. Maybe you add someone to your roster for depth, but don’t start them this week. You might get some DFS information from the piece. It’s up to you. Dealer choice.
We are in week 12.
Demarcus Robinson in Jacksonville (Yahoo DFS salary $16)
It may seem a bit sheepish to call Robinson a sleeper given that he caught all nine of his targets for 128 yards last week. People tend to notice such a line. Robinson’s career was a pedestrian one, a six-year run with only 170 catches and 15 touchdowns. That said, the Ravens are desperate for receiver – injuries have decimated the room. And Jacksonville’s defense is credible against the run (15th in DVOA) but lousy against the pass (31st in DVOA). Even after Tuesday night’s exemption run, Robinson goes unclaimed in about 86 percent of Yahoo competitions. There is a great opportunity here. Baltimore must treat Robinson as an all-round player.
Elijah Moore vs. Chicago (DFS Salary $10)
It feels like five years ago, but Moore had some moments in the first month of the year. He absorbed 21 goals in the first three weeks—admittedly, the Jets had a ridiculous pass/run split at the time—and occasionally showed chemistry with Joe Flacco. New York announced that Zach Wilson is benched and the team will turn to Mike White. I defy White to be worse than Wilson’s horror show. Moore was a summer destination choice; maybe this pilot change will ensure a quick finish for him.
Josh Palmer in Arizona (DFS salary $22)
Palmer’s scouting profile has always been common, but the Chargers need him in their current plans. Tight end Gerald Everett (groin) didn’t play last week and Mike Williams aggravated his high ankle sprain. Head coach Brandon Stanley downplays the severity of Williams’ injury, but high ankle sprains have a way of persisting.
Palmer has a snappy 19-256-2 line over the past three weeks, and yet he’s currently started in just 24 percent of the Yahoo leagues. Justin Herbert swings it again. The Chargers’ passing tree continues to narrow. Arizona’s defense is messed up; San Francisco did everything it wanted in Mexico on Monday night. Palmer is approved for proactive use at week 12.
Nico Collins in Miami (DFS salary $15)
I know you’re probably tired of the passing game in Houston, and maybe Collins himself has let you down in recent weeks. But the Miami defense is a funnel unit – it stops the run and struggles (29th in DVOA) against the pass. And consider the expected game script; with Miami 13.5-point favorites, Houston will likely throw the ball for most of the second half. Collins won nothing for us last week, but a 5-48-0 line is not a total dropout. And he had 10 goals and a touchdown in his earlier start. He is able to sneak into the WR3 bin this week. The QB change from Davis Mills to Kyle Allen cannot be considered a major downgrade at this point.
Logan Thomas vs. Falcons (DFS salary $12)
A tight end is dirty, you can’t get around it. So many injuries, so many underperformance.
The usual support options are there: Juwan Johnson for touchdown equity, Taysom Hill for possible gadget use (the Saints admit they need to use him more), Pat Freiermuth for the vacated Chase Claypool targets. If you can’t land any of those guys, maybe Thomas is more your speed. Posting a nifty 5-65-0 line last week, he’s always been on good terms with Taylor Heinicke and Thomas finally looks back to full health after a nagging calf injury. The Falcons are in the bottom corner of the league when it comes to tight marking.
Dontrell Hilliard (RB stock for Tennessee)
No one wants to see Derrick Henry get hurt and if he gets injured, all bets are off in Tennessee. That said, Hilliard has been a running splash game all year round, averaging 6.7 yards per carry and 10 yards per reception. Sure, it’s only 35 touches, but four of those catches have gone for touchdowns. Hilliard should be included in every medium and deeper pool, but right now he trades at just 12 percent in Yahoo leagues.
Seahawks DST (Look Ahead for Week 13)
I love playing the defense look-ahead game this late in the year, and the Seahawks are a week away from a delightful date with the Rams. Sean McVay may be a genius with cards, but the LAR’s offensive staff is probably the worst in the NFC right now. Seattle is included in just 15 percent of Yahoo; in some pools I skip the line and put them away now. It’s possible the Rams will use a second- or third-string quarterback next week, and it is it looks like they will do it in week 12, and obviously Cooper Kupp will not be playing. Seattle can turn here.