Packers’ Christian Watson is an elementary game vs. Aries

The difference between illusions and magic is that illusions are tricks presented as magic. It sure felt like magic when Baker Mayfield pulled a 98-yard game-winning drive out of his hat against the Raiders last week, just two days after the Los Angeles Rams claimed him off waivers. Can he repeat that feat, or was it a one-off televised event, like David Copperfield making the Statue of Liberty disappear?

Vegas oddsmakers believe the genie will remain in the bottle Monday night at Lambeau Field, making the Rams +280 moneyline underdogs against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Here are three player props on BetMGM that I like in tonight’s ice cold affair:

Christian Watson over 47.5 receiving yards (-115)

It’s easier to steal the Declaration of Independence than it is for a novice receiver to gain Aaron Rodgers’ trust, but that’s exactly what Watson did (the trust part, not the Nic Cage part). He leads all Packers pass catchers in goals over the past four games, turning those 27 chances into 313 yards and seven scores. The Los Angeles defense ranks 29th in EPA per dropback and allows the ninth most yards to enemy wide receivers. Watson has surpassed this number in each of his last four appearances.

Allen Lazard over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)

While it’s a fair bet that at least one of Watson or Lazard will cash in on their receiving yardage props tonight, they’ve both achieved those numbers in three of the last four games. Lazard leads Green Bay in goals (75) and receiving yards (620) throughout the season and is as much a threat as he is dangerous in the in-between area of ​​the field. The veteran has a catch of at least 17 yards in his last 10 games, which would be a long way to hit this prop. Lazard has cashed this in six of his last seven games.

Cam Akers over 53.5 rushing yards (-120)

Green Bay gives up the third most rushing yards per game (154.8) and has given up 606 rushing yards in their last three appearances. Their defense is just below average against the pass and ranks 32nd in rushing EPA and 31st in rushing success rate. The Rams’ path to success on offense tonight will be to keep running. After briefly falling out of favor with Sean McVay, Akers has averaged 13 transfers over his last four games and should get plenty of work against a Packers defense that has 5.0 yards per carry on the season and 5.7 yards per carry in their last three games.

PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 27: Christian Watson #9 of the Green Bay Packers reacts after a first loss to the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on November 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 27: Christian Watson #9 of the Green Bay Packers reacts after a first loss to the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on November 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Statistics provided by Pro Football Reference, CBS Sports, StatMuse and rbsdm.com (dropout time removed).

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