Met Office predicts that 2023 will be hotter than 2022

Dried lake bottom

Dried lake bottom

Next year will be warmer than this year, and one of the hottest on record, the UK Met Office predicts.

Forecasts suggest it will be the 10th year in a row that global temperatures are at least 1°C above average.

The Met Office explained that a cooling effect known as La Niña is likely to end after being in place for three years – part of a natural weather cycle.

It also pointed to the warming impact of human-induced climate change.

Scientific evidence shows that climate change is driving up global temperatures.

Governments around the world have pledged to reduce emissions to keep the temperature rise below 1.5°C and avoid the worst effects of climate change.

The world has already warmed by about 1.1°C compared to the period before the industrial revolution in 1750-1900, when humans began to burn large amounts of fossil fuels, releasing warming gases into the atmosphere.

Temperatures in 2023 are expected to be between 1.08C and 1.32C above the pre-industrial average.

The warmest year since records began in 1850 was in 2016, when meteorologists said the weather phenomenon known as El Niño caused global temperatures to rise.

But the past three years have been impacted by another weather pattern called La Niña, when cooler-than-average sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean lowered global average temperatures.

That effect is now predicted to end, causing conditions in parts of the Pacific to warm and global temperatures to be warmer than they were in 2022.

Unlike 2016, it is not expected to be a record year because El Niño will not raise global temperatures, explains Prof. Adam Scaife, head of long-term forecasting at the Met Office.

But some parts of the world, such as the Arctic, are warming faster than average.

“Next year, La Niña’s natural and temporary inhibitory effect will diminish. The full throttle will drive warming over the next year and continue into the future, along with more severe wet, dry and hot extremes, until policies are in place to net zero emissions.” of greenhouse gases,” Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, told BBC News.

In 2022 temperature records will be broken in many parts of the world, including in the United Kingdom, where the temperature was recorded above 40C.

Devastating bushfires hit parts of Europe and Australia linked to warm weather, and Pakistan and India were sweltering with temperatures reaching 51C in May.

In a series of studies, scientists concluded that these temperatures were made much more likely by climate change.

Rising temperatures are expected to lead to devastating impacts on humans and wildlife, including increased drought, desertification and heat-related disease.

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