Five week 11 matchups to exploit

Especially for Yahoo Sports

Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an “apples-to-apples” fashion. As the season progresses, the data changes. Either way, aFPA is arguably the best tool available for getting a head start on using waivers and building lineups.

Another point to make: I could offer players like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes pretty much every week, especially when they’re dealing with terrible units according to aFPA. That does everyone a disservice, so I’ll do my best to avoid rostering players in most fantasy leagues.

Here are the best plays for week 11.

As fun as it would be to write all the lame jokes about the Broncos, I had to watch Mr. Unlimited against the worst team against skip quarterbacks. Jones gets the Lions in Week 11, a team that allows the second most scheduled fantasy points to signal callers. Detroit is a week away from literally run over Justin Fields. Footnote: DeShon Elliott was the victim of that play, and he is one of the few to tell about tackle Dirk Hendrik in the open field. Elliott is currently on concussion protocol.

Back to Jones. The Giants can take from the Bears’ game plan in the same way the Bears can take from theirs. Jones can use his legs to trick one of the least disciplined defenses in the NFL. Jones could be the third QB to surpass 50 rushing yards against the Lions (two other QBs have over 40 rushing yards). To add Saquon Barkley (Detroit allows an even 5.0 yards per carry to RBs) and plenty of receiving talent, and the Giants should flirt with the most runs scored in Week 11. Another plus: The Giants appear to be far enough south to the expected snow miss that should change the game played in Orchard Park, NY

Washington Commanders run back to Houston Texans

Brian Robinson Jr. and Anthony Gibson scored in their upset of the Eagles in Week 10, taking advantage of Philly’s defensive line injuries. Even if the Texans were healthy, they’d be a target. The 32nd ranked defense in aFPA against running backs is now tasked with a dual threat backfield, a QB that can scramble, Curtis Samuel‘s hasty prowess and Terry McLaurin. Houston has a chance to pass against the Commanders (29th in WR aFPA) as they are solid against RBs. Despite having an O/U of 40.5 on Tuesday night, I think this game could be one of the highest scoring games this week.

The night is darkest just before dawn, or something like that. Claypool’s addition to Chicago’s “receiver corps” has yet to bear much fruit as he has just three receptions in two games. If the Bears want to be competitive with their defense in shambles, that needs to change. The size of Claypool, Mooney running out of slots again, and the Falcons with 1.5 healthy players in secondary make this a great fill-in situation for bye week. A. J. Terrell‘s hamstring injury is key to Claypool as a threat. Mooney is a slot in season-long slot lineups. We have seen Justin Fields explode in fantasy these past few weeks, and a game against the Falcons in a dome should lead to points and chances for both squads.

Bears WR Chase Claypool has yet to break out since arriving in Chicago.  Is this the week that happens in fantasy?

Bears wide receiver Chase Claypool has yet to break out since arriving in Chicago. Is this the week that happens in fantasy? (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Dallas Goodert (shoulder) is out for what could be a long time, meaning Stoll has a solid role in the Eagles offense. Tight end remains a wasteland, making Stoll a premium addition all season long Gerald Everett hurt and Cade Otto, Evan Engram, Mike Gesicki and Noah Fant bye bye. The Dolphins and Seahawks are two of the top TE matchups using aFPA, so hoping to get a player off the distance lead leads to Stoll. The Colts allow 11.5 schedule-adjusted fantasy points on tight ends, including 4.8 receptions for position per game. Grant Calcaterra could also be the most targeted, but I’m leaning towards Stoll because he’s been with the team for both Nick Sirianniyears with the Eagles.

Cooper Cup just had ankle surgery and is on injured reserve. That should be all you need considering how poorly the Rams’ attack has worked beyond their best offensive weapon. New Orleans can be vulnerable against QBs and RBs, but Matthew Stafford remains in concussion protocol as of Tuesday and the Rams’ RB room is hard-boiled booty. The Saints defense is mid-range in yards allowed per game, but allows 50 fewer per game at home. The Saints defense can also get to the QB. Only five teams have a better sack rate than New Orleans, and the Rams are known to have problems on the offensive line. Only the Colts allow more schedule-adjusted fantasy points on defenses than the Rams.

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Jeff has been playing fantasy sports since 2001. He has spent the better part of a decade playing fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro and amateur levels. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff likes to run (fix), followed by doing nothing at all.

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